Pima County closed 686 homes in October, down 25%, yet the median price rose to $385,000. Here's what's behind it and what it means for buyers and sellers.
Pima County closed just 686 single-family homes in October, down 25% from last year and the fewest October sales in at least four years. The median price still rose 2.7% to $385,000, but that’s mostly because fewer mid-market homes sold, not because individual homes gained value. Half of all active listings have already cut their price, which is the number that matters most for buyers and sellers this winter.
| By Michelle Ripley | November 9, 2026 |
If you only looked at the October price headline, you’d think nothing changed. Prices went up, days on market held steady, and the market looks fine. But underneath that county-wide median, buyers got more selective, sellers are adjusting, and the market got quieter.
Here’s what the October numbers actually show, and what they mean if you’re buying or selling this winter.
What Did the Pima County Housing Market Do in October?
In October, 686 single-family homes closed in Pima County, 25% fewer than October of last year. Total sales volume was about $325 million, down 22%.
The median sale price was $385,000, up 2.7% year over year. The average sale price was about $474,000, up 3.8%. Fewer buyers closed, but the ones who did paid slightly more.
Homes also sold at the same pace as last year. Median days on market was 32, exactly the same as October 2025. The market didn’t freeze. It just got quieter.
Why Did the Median Price Rise If Sales Dropped?
A median can rise for two very different reasons: either every home is worth more, or the mix of what sold shifted. This month, it’s mostly the second one.
“A median can rise because every home is worth more, or because the mix of what sold shifted. This month, it’s mostly the second one.”
There were fewer mid-market closings and more high-end closings, so the county median drifts up without a single home being worth more. That’s why a county-wide number can’t tell you what your own home is worth.
Are Buyers Pulling Back?
Closings are a lagging number because they reflect deals made 30 to 45 days earlier. To see where the market is headed, look at new pending sales, which are homes that just went under contract.
In October, 686 homes went under contract, compared with 871 last year, a 21% drop. The trend over the past three months has been steady: 872 in August, 794 in September, and 686 in October.
Meanwhile, sellers didn’t stop listing. There were 1,420 new listings in October, only 5% fewer than last year. Sellers are still bringing homes to market, but fewer buyers are pulling the trigger.
How Much Housing Supply Is There Right Now?
There are 3,789 single-family homes actively for sale in Pima County. At the October pace of sales, that’s 5.5 months of supply.
Months of supply tells you how long it would take to sell every home on the market if no new ones came on. Around four to six months is generally considered balanced. Under four favors sellers, and over six favors buyers. At 5.5 months, Pima County is balanced, leaning slightly toward buyers.
Those homes aren’t selling quickly either. The typical active listing has been on the market 60 days, and the average is 103 days. A pile of homes sitting for a long time is how inventory builds up.
Why Have Half of All Listings Already Cut Their Price?
Of the 3,789 active listings, 1,890 have already reduced their price. That’s 50% of the market.
Sellers are making the call quickly. The median time until a first price drop is just 15 days, and the average cut is about 6%. On a home near the median price, that’s roughly $23,000.
There’s good news for sellers who adjust: when a home drops its price, it goes under contract after a median of 35 days. Price reductions work. Buyers are still out there. They’re just waiting for the right price.
How Does Supply Change by Price Range?
Pima County isn’t one market. These are county-wide price bands, not neighborhoods, but they show how different the experience can be.
- Under $200,000: the tightest range, with just over 3 months of supply. Those homes are scarce and they sell.
- $300,000 to $400,000: the biggest segment, with 1,196 active listings, about 5 months of supply, and 236 sales last month. It’s busy, but it’s also where sales fell the most over the past few months.
- $500,000 to $600,000: about 7.4 months of supply.
- Over $1.4 million: more than 14 months of supply, and the typical listing has been on the market 109 days.
Negotiating room also grows at the top. Homes from $1 million up are closing 3.5% to 4% under asking, compared with about 1% in the $300,000 to $400,000 range. Across the whole county, homes sold for about 1.85% below asking in October, roughly $7,000 on a $385,000 home.
What Happens When a Home Sits Too Long?
Looking at listings over the past year, about 8 in 10 ended up selling, and those that sold went under contract in a median of 27 days. Canceled listings sat a median of 77 days before the seller pulled them. And listings that went past 90 days had only about a 62% chance of selling.
The longer a home sits, the harder it gets. The average home took 56 days to sell in October while the median was 32, which tells us some homes sell quickly and others sit.
How Does the Year Look So Far?
Year to date, 9,494 homes have sold, down about 2% from last year. The median price is $385,000, exactly flat with last year, and price per square foot is down about 1%.
This year hasn’t been a crash and it hasn’t been a boom. It’s been steady, and in a steady market, pricing is what separates the homes that sell from the homes that sit.
What Should Buyers and Sellers Do This Winter?
If you’re buying, you have more negotiating room county-wide than you’ve had in a while. With half the listings already reduced, look at how long a home has been on the market and what its price history looks like.
If you’re selling, price it right from day one. The first 15 days matter, and every price drop costs you something. Homes that start at the right price tend to sell faster and closer to asking.
Why Your Neighborhood May Not Match the County Numbers
Everything above is a county average, and Pima County isn’t one market. It’s dozens. In specific areas like Sahuarita and the Vail corridor, the numbers don’t move the same way as the county. Some neighborhoods are flat, and some are genuinely softening.
So if your neighbor’s house sold for less than you expected, that doesn’t contradict the county data. It’s exactly what a county average hides. Knowing where your home fits means looking at your specific area and price range.
Frequently Asked Questions
How many single-family homes sold in Pima County in October 2026?
686 single-family homes closed in Pima County in October, down 25% from October of last year and the fewest October sales in at least four years. Total sales volume was about $325 million, down 22%.
What was the median home price in Pima County in October 2026?
The median sale price was $385,000, up 2.7% from last year. The average sale price was about $474,000, up 3.8%. Much of the median increase reflects a shift toward more high-end closings and fewer mid-market ones rather than individual homes gaining value.
How many Pima County listings have reduced their price?
Of 3,789 active single-family listings, 1,890 (50%) have already reduced their price. The median time until a first price drop is 15 days, and the average cut is about 6%, roughly $23,000 on a home near the median price.
Is Pima County a buyer’s or seller’s market right now?
Pima County has about 5.5 months of supply, which is generally considered balanced, leaning slightly toward buyers. Balanced is typically four to six months, under four favors sellers, and over six favors buyers. Conditions vary a lot by price range and neighborhood.
How long does it take a Pima County home to sell?
Median days on market in October was 32, the same as last year, while the average was 56 days. Listings that sold over the past year went under contract in a median of 27 days, and listings that went past 90 days had only about a 62% chance of selling.
The October numbers tell a clear story: prices are holding, buyers are more selective, and accurate pricing from day one matters more than it has in a while.
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Not sure where your home fits in these numbers? Michelle’s contact information is below — reach out anytime, and let’s talk it through.
About Michelle Ripley Michelle Ripley is the owner and lead advisor of Ripley’s Real Estate Group with Keller Williams Southern Arizona, ranked among the top 1% of agents nationally. She serves buyers and sellers throughout Tucson, Oro Valley, Marana, and Pima County — from first-time buyers to luxury clients — with an education-first approach backed by data-driven marketing and deep local expertise.
