Is a Housing Crash Coming to Tucson?
No, and the data backs that up on two levels. Nationally, Fannie Mae’s latest survey of more than 100 housing experts has home prices rising every single year through at least 2030, even among the most pessimistic forecasters. Locally, Pima County’s median sale price has climbed every single year since 2016, including through the 2022 rate spike. If you’ve been waiting on the sidelines for a crash, the numbers say you may be waiting a long time.
| By Michelle Ripley | September 30, 2026 |
Half the buyers I talk to are worried prices are about to tank. The other half are hoping for it. A recent Clever survey found 58% of Gen Z buyers are actually rooting for a crash, just so homeownership feels within reach.
So what do the actual forecasts say? Every quarter, Fannie Mae surveys more than 100 housing experts on where prices are headed, and the newest results are in. Spoiler: nobody on that panel is calling for a crash, not even the pessimists.
What the National Forecast Actually Says
The panel’s average forecast has home prices rising 14.7% nationally over the next 5 years. Split the group into optimists and pessimists, and even the pessimists still expect prices up about 6.6% by the end of 2030.
The near-term outlook has actually gotten a little more optimistic too. A year ago, the panel expected 2.1% growth this year. Now they’re forecasting 2.5%. Zoom out to 2027-2029, though, and the mood has cooled slightly, with each of those years now expected to see a bit less growth than forecasters thought a year ago. That’s not a warning sign. It’s a market settling into a more normal pace after a few wild years. Every single bar on that forecast still points up. The size of the increase moderated; the direction didn’t.
What This Looks Like in Pima County
Here’s the local version of that same story. Pima County’s median sale price has risen every year since 2016, from $174,000 then to $355,000 now, including through the sharpest rate increases in a generation. That’s not a guarantee of what happens next, but it’s a long track record worth knowing before you bet on a crash.
One honest caveat, and I’d rather tell you than have you find out later: Pima County’s median sale price is essentially flat year-over-year right now, down about 0.6% from this time in 2025. That’s the kind of local nuance that national headlines can’t capture. We’re not seeing the national-level growth right now, but we’re also not seeing anything close to the drop a lot of people are bracing for or hoping for. It looks a lot more like a pause than a crash.
What a Crash-Free Forecast Means for Your Equity
Percentages are useful, but you probably care more about actual dollars. Run Fannie Mae’s 14.7% forecast against Pima County’s current median sale price of $355,000, and that’s roughly $52,000 in equity over 5 years from price growth alone, with no renovations or extra principal payments required. Even the pessimist case, that 6.6% floor, still pencils out to about $23,000.
That’s real wealth building while some buyers sit on the sidelines waiting for a crash the experts don’t see coming. And if prices keep climbing even modestly, waiting could mean paying more for the same home later, not less.
If today’s rate is what’s holding you back rather than the price itself, it’s worth knowing Tucson has a meaningful number of FHA and VA loans in the local mix, and some of those are assumable. A buyer willing to take over a seller’s existing loan can sometimes inherit a rate well below today’s market rate — a real option worth asking your agent about on the right listing.
The Bottom Line
Whether you’re bracing for a crash or hoping for one, the forecast says the same thing: prices are expected to keep rising, not fall, both nationally and here in Pima County. The question isn’t whether to wait for a crash. It’s what waiting actually costs you.
If you’re weighing a purchase, a sale, or just want to understand what your equity could look like 5 years from now, reach out anytime. And if you’re curious what your current home is worth in today’s market, get a free home valuation — it only takes a minute.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is a housing market crash coming in 2026 or 2027?
Fannie Mae’s latest survey of over 100 housing experts has prices rising every year through at least 2030, even among the most pessimistic forecasters on the panel. Nothing in the current data points to a crash.
Have Tucson home prices ever crashed recently?
No. Pima County’s median sale price has risen every single year since 2016, including through the sharp rate increases of 2022-2023. It’s currently roughly flat year-over-year rather than falling.
Should I wait to buy a home until prices drop?
Based on current forecasts, that’s a risky bet. Experts expect prices to keep climbing, even if more slowly than in past years, which means waiting could mean paying more for the same home later rather than less.
How much equity could I build by buying now instead of waiting?
Using Fannie Mae’s forecast against Pima County’s current median sale price of $355,000, a buyer could see roughly $52,000 in equity over 5 years from price growth alone, or about $23,000 even under the most pessimistic forecast.
Why do some buyers want a housing crash?
Mostly affordability. A recent survey found 58% of Gen Z buyers are hoping for a crash just to make homeownership feel within reach. The forecasts don’t support that outcome, but it’s understandable that rising prices feel discouraging for buyers trying to get in.
About Michelle Ripley Michelle Ripley is the owner and lead advisor of Ripley’s Real Estate Group with Keller Williams Southern Arizona, ranked among the top 1% of agents nationally. She serves buyers and sellers throughout Tucson, Oro Valley, Marana, and Pima County — from first-time buyers to luxury clients — with an education-first approach backed by data-driven marketing and deep local expertise. A proud Oro Valley resident, Michelle is known for treating every client relationship with the same integrity and care that built her reputation as one of Southern Arizona’s most trusted agents.
