Should you wait for 2027 to buy or sell in Tucson?
Major forecasts see a steady, slower market through 2027, so waiting for a big shift may not pay off. Fannie Mae’s October outlook projects the 30-year mortgage rate averaging 7.5% in every quarter of 2027, and the Mortgage Bankers Association expects rates to stay above 7%, while national home price growth is forecast at only 0.6% (Fannie Mae) to 0.8% (Goldman Sachs). In Pima County, the single-family median sale price has held at $385,000 for two years and 50% of active listings have cut their price, so the better question is whether a move fits your life and budget today.
| By Michelle Ripley | November 6, 2026 |
If you’re thinking about moving, two questions are probably on your mind: where are mortgage rates headed, and what’s going to happen to home prices?
Here’s what the forecasters are saying. They don’t expect wild swings or big surprises. They expect a calmer, steadier market, and steady makes planning a whole lot easier.
What the forecasts say about mortgage rates
A lot of people are hoping rates will fall in 2027. The latest forecasts don’t point that way. Fannie Mae’s October Housing Forecast projects the 30-year fixed rate averaging 7.4% in the fourth quarter of 2026 and then holding at 7.5% in every quarter of 2027. The Mortgage Bankers Association expects rates to reach about 7.3% in the fourth quarter and stay above 7% throughout next year.
Today’s rates are in that neighborhood. Freddie Mac’s survey showed the 30-year fixed rate averaging 7.32% as of October 22.
Here’s what that looks like on a Pima County home. On a $308,000 loan (20% down on the $385,000 median single-family sale price), principal and interest comes out to about:
- $2,154 a month at 7.50%, Fannie Mae’s forecast for 2027
- $2,116 a month at 7.32%, the October 22 average
Forecasts aren’t guarantees. In September, Fannie Mae expected rates to average 6.7% in 2027. A month later, it moved that number up to 7.5%. At 6.7%, the same loan would cost about $1,987 a month. And not everyone agrees: TD Cowen expects rates to ease to about 6.6% in 2027, which would be roughly $1,967. The point isn’t to pick a winner. It’s that nobody knows, so building your plan around a rate you’re hoping for is a risky strategy.
Instead, focus on what you can control. When you talk with a lender, ask about:
- Your credit profile. It can influence the rate you’re offered. See what credit score you need to buy a home in Tucson.
- Different loan types. Some programs offer lower rates or smaller down payments than you might expect, including adjustable-rate mortgages for some buyers.
- Buying down your rate. Paying a little more upfront for points can lower your rate and your monthly payment, and a seller credit can sometimes cover it.
I’m not a lender, so please talk to a loan officer about real numbers.
What the forecasts say about home prices
Here’s where steady works in your favor. Experts don’t see a home price drop coming. They see slower growth instead. Fannie Mae’s Home Price Index is forecast to rise just 0.6% in 2027, down from 2.7% in 2026. Goldman Sachs Research expects national price growth of 0.8% in 2027, after 1.1% in 2026.
In plain terms, prices should hold, just not climb as fast. For sellers, that means your home should hold onto its value. For buyers, slower growth gives you more breathing room. Just don’t count on prices getting cheaper while you wait.
These are national forecasts, and Tucson doesn’t move in lockstep with them. According to the MLSSAZ Market Snapshot, Pima County’s single-family median sale price was $385,000 in October, up 2.7% from a year earlier, and the year-to-date median is $385,000, the same as 2025. For more on why headlines and local numbers differ, see are Tucson home prices going up or down.
Here’s what else the October data shows for Pima County single-family homes:
- Supply: 3,789 active listings, about 5.5 months of supply
- Price cuts: 50% of active listings have cut their price, by about 6% on average
- Negotiating room: Homes closed about 1.85% below asking in October, roughly $7,100 on the median
- Demand: Closings were down 25.1% from last October, and new pending sales fell 21.2%
How much room you have depends on your price point. From August 4 to November 2, homes at $300,000–$399,999 closed about 1.1% under asking, while homes at $800,000–$999,999 closed about 2.3% under. Months of supply runs about 4.7 for asking prices of $200,000–$299,999 and 7.4 for $500,000–$599,999, and it’s higher above $1.4 million. Your price range, area, and property type matter more than any national number.
How to decide whether to wait
When the market is steady, you don’t have to time it perfectly. There’s no big swing to wait out, which puts the focus back on you.
Here’s how I’d think it through:
- Start with your reason for moving. If you need more space, less upkeep, or a different location, those needs don’t go away on a forecast. Should you wait to move in Tucson goes deeper on that question.
- Run your numbers at today’s rate. Ask your lender for the payment at current rates, not the rate you’re hoping for. If rates do fall, you may be able to refinance, but that depends on your situation and costs.
- Use the room you have. With half of listings cutting price, ask about a seller credit toward closing costs or a rate buydown. The standard AAR purchase contract also gives you a 10-day default inspection period, and the BINSR (Buyer’s Inspection Notice and Seller’s Response) is how you request repairs or credits. Review the seller’s SPDS, too.
- If you’re selling, price for today. Forecasts say your home should hold its value, but buyers are negotiating. Price from recent closed sales near you, and plan for the BINSR. If your home is in unincorporated Pima County, you’ll also provide an Affidavit of Disclosure.
- Know your costs. Arizona has no meaningful transfer tax, just a flat $2 recording fee, and your closing runs through escrow.
The Bottom Line
If you’re asking whether you should move now or wait, here’s what the forecasts say: a steady market through 2027, with rates holding near today’s levels and prices rising slowly, if at all. So instead of waiting for a big shift that may not come, run the numbers on what a move looks like at today’s rates and prices.
If you’re thinking about buying, reach out anytime, and I’ll walk you through the numbers. And if you’re a homeowner who wants to know where you stand, get a free home valuation — it’s fast, no-obligation, and gives you real numbers to work with.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are experts forecasting for mortgage rates in 2027?
Fannie Mae’s October forecast projects the 30-year fixed rate averaging 7.5% in every quarter of 2027, and the Mortgage Bankers Association expects rates to stay above 7%. Some forecasters expect more relief, such as TD Cowen at about 6.6%, so rates are far from certain. Freddie Mac’s survey showed 7.32% as of October 22, 2026.
Will home prices fall in 2027?
Forecasters don’t expect a drop nationally. Fannie Mae projects home price growth of 0.6% in 2027, and Goldman Sachs Research projects 0.8%. National forecasts don’t predict what will happen in Tucson, where prices vary by area, price range, and property type.
Should I wait until 2027 to buy a house in Tucson?
It depends on your reason for moving and what your budget can handle. Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association don’t expect rates to fall much, and Pima County’s median single-family price has been flat at $385,000 for two years. Run your numbers with a lender at today’s rate before deciding.
How much would a lower mortgage rate save on a Tucson home?
On a $308,000 loan (20% down on Pima County’s $385,000 median), principal and interest is about $2,154 a month at 7.5% and about $1,987 at 6.7%, a difference of roughly $166 a month. This excludes taxes, insurance, and HOA fees. Your actual numbers depend on your down payment, credit, and loan type.
Are mortgage rate forecasts reliable?
Not entirely. Fannie Mae’s September forecast had the 30-year rate averaging 6.7% in 2027, and its October forecast raised that to 7.5%. Forecasts change as the economy changes, so use them as context, not a plan.
About Michelle Ripley Michelle Ripley is the owner and lead advisor of Ripley’s Real Estate Group with Keller Williams Southern Arizona, ranked among the top 1% of agents nationally. She serves buyers and sellers throughout Tucson, Oro Valley, Marana, and Pima County — from first-time buyers to luxury clients — with an education-first approach backed by data-driven marketing and deep local expertise. A proud Oro Valley resident, Michelle is known for treating every client relationship with the same integrity and care that built her reputation as one of Southern Arizona’s most trusted agents.
