What Percentage of Home Sales Actually Fall Through Before Closing?
Only about 1 in 7 pending home sales fall through before closing, according to the latest Redfin data. That means the vast majority of homes that go under contract make it all the way to close of escrow. The most common reasons are inspection or repair disputes, buyer financing issues, a buyer’s own home not selling in time, and last-minute changes to a buyer’s financial situation, and the biggest one, inspection issues, is also the one sellers have the most power to prevent.
| By Michelle Ripley | September 8, 2026 |
If you’re getting ready to list your home, it’s normal to worry about the deal falling apart right before the finish line. I hear this from almost every seller I work with, especially once they’ve started picturing themselves in the next house. Here’s the good news: it rarely happens, and the biggest risk factor is one you can get ahead of before your home ever hits the MLS.
Why Tucson Deals Actually Fall Apart
A recent Redfin survey breaks down the most common reasons pending sales fail. Here’s what each one looks like in a real Tucson transaction.
Inspection or repair issues. This is the big one, and it’s the one I see most often here in Pima County. Once a buyer’s inspector finds a problem, whether it’s the roof, the AC system, the plumbing, or foundation movement, the buyer has options under the BINSR (Buyer’s Inspection Notice and Seller’s Response). They can ask you to make repairs, request a credit, or push for a lower price. If the two sides can’t agree, they can walk, and Arizona’s standard 10-day inspection period is a fast-moving window for that to happen.
Buyer financing falls through. The buyer’s loan has to be fully approved and funded by close of escrow. If underwriting hits a snag, the closing date can slip or the deal can collapse entirely.
The buyer’s current home doesn’t sell. Some buyers need to sell their own house before they can close on yours. If that sale drags on, your timeline drags with it, or the buyer backs out altogether.
A change in the buyer’s financial situation. A new job, a large purchase, or new debt can shift what a buyer qualifies for, even after they’ve been pre-approved.
Some of this is genuinely outside your control. Whether a buyer’s loan clears or their own home sells on schedule isn’t something you or I can manage from the seller’s side of the table. But the biggest risk on that list, inspection surprises, absolutely is.
The One Thing You Can Do Before You List
Get a pre-listing inspection. This means hiring your own inspector before a buyer’s inspector ever sets foot in the house. It lets you find the big issues on your own terms, so you can fix what’s worth fixing and disclose the rest clearly on your SPDS (Seller’s Property Disclosure Statement) instead of scrambling once you’re under contract and the clock is running.
This matters even more in Tucson’s current market. With inventory rising and homes sitting longer than they did a couple of years ago, buyers have more negotiating leverage than they used to, and they’re using their inspection period to push harder on price and repairs. A pre-listing inspection takes that leverage off the table before it’s ever in play.
I walk every seller through this decision before we list, because a pre-listing inspection doesn’t make sense for every house or every price point. It depends on your home’s age, condition, and what buyers in your specific neighborhood are prioritizing right now. That’s a conversation worth having before your sign goes in the yard, not after an offer falls apart.
Weigh the whole offer, not just the number. The second thing that protects your sale happens once offers are in hand. The highest offer on paper isn’t always the safest one. If a buyer’s offer depends on selling their own home first, your closing timeline now rides on a deal you can’t see or control. Sometimes a slightly lower offer with fewer contingencies is the one that actually gets you to the closing table on schedule. This is exactly the kind of tradeoff I help my sellers sort through before they sign anything.
Bottom Line
Most home sales in Tucson still close, and the single biggest threat to yours is also the one you have the most power over. A pre-listing inspection, paired with a clear-eyed read on which offer is actually the safest, puts you in control of your timeline instead of hoping nothing goes wrong.
Frequently Asked Questions
What percentage of home sales fall through before closing?
Nationally, only about 1 in 7 pending home sales fall through before closing, according to Redfin. The vast majority of contracts make it all the way to close of escrow.
What’s the most common reason a home sale falls through in Arizona?
Inspection and repair disputes are the leading cause. Once a buyer’s inspector finds an issue, they can request repairs, a credit, or a price reduction under the BINSR, and if the two sides can’t reach agreement, the buyer can walk away during Arizona’s 10-day inspection period.
Is a pre-listing inspection worth it in Tucson’s current market?
For many sellers, yes. With more inventory and longer days on market, buyers have more room to negotiate after their own inspection. A pre-listing inspection lets you address or disclose issues on your own terms before that leverage comes into play. Whether it makes sense for your specific home depends on its age, condition, and price point.
Does a low-contingency offer beat a higher offer with a home sale contingency?
Not always, but it’s worth serious consideration. If a buyer’s offer depends on selling their own home first, your closing timeline depends on a transaction you can’t control. A slightly lower offer with fewer contingencies is sometimes the more reliable path to closing on schedule.
What happens if a buyer’s financing falls through after we’re under contract?
If the buyer’s loan doesn’t fund by the closing date, the sale can’t move forward as originally planned. Depending on your contract terms, you may have the option to extend, renegotiate, or put the home back on the market, which is another reason a strong pre-listing preparation and a well-qualified buyer matter from the start.
If you’re getting ready to list and want to know what your home is worth in today’s Tucson market, get a free home valuation. It’s fast, no-obligation, and gives you real numbers to plan around before we talk strategy.
About Michelle Ripley Michelle Ripley is the owner and lead advisor of Ripley’s Real Estate Group with Keller Williams Southern Arizona, ranked among the top 1% of agents nationally. She serves buyers and sellers throughout Tucson, Oro Valley, Marana, and Pima County — from first-time buyers to luxury clients — with an education-first approach backed by data-driven marketing and deep local expertise. A proud Oro Valley resident, Michelle is known for treating every client relationship with the same integrity and care that built her reputation as one of Southern Arizona’s most trusted agents.
