Pima County prices barely moved in September, but pending sales fell 17%. Here's what it means in Tucson, Oro Valley, and Marana, and in your price range.
In September 2026, Pima County’s median sales price was $385,000, up just 1.4% from last year, but new pending sales fell 17% (from 923 to 762) and closed sales dropped almost 10%. With about 4.4 months of supply and 48% of active listings already price-reduced, the market is a standoff between cautious buyers and cautious sellers. Oro Valley bucked the trend, with pending sales up 20% and homes selling in 24 days.
By Michelle Ripley
- That’s how many fewer homes went under contract in Pima County this September compared to last September. We went from 923 pending sales to 762. That’s a 17% drop, but here’s the interesting part: home prices barely moved. So where did the buyers go, and why didn’t sellers panic?
Let’s look at what’s really happening in Tucson, Oro Valley, and Marana, because one of those three markets is doing the exact opposite of the other two, and I’m willing to bet it’s not the one you think.
I’m Michelle Ripley, and this is your September look at the Tucson real estate market. No fluff, no smoke. Let’s get into the numbers.
Pima County: The Big Picture
Let’s start with all of Pima County and the number everybody watches: price. The median sales price in September was $385,000. A year ago, it was $379,500. That’s an increase of 1.4%. In other words, basically flat.
But zoom out for a minute, because this is where the story gets a little interesting. Back in 2020, the median price in Pima County was $265,000. By 2022, it had jumped to $370,000. That was a huge run-up in a very short period of time, and I think we all remember that. Since then, the median was $390,000 in 2024, $385,000 in 2025, and it’s sitting at $385,000 again this year. That’s three years of a market that has essentially been standing still on price.
If price were the only number you watched, you might think nothing was happening. But price is usually the last thing to react. Buyer and seller behavior changes first, and behavior definitely changed in September.
Fewer Buyers, Fewer Sellers: A Standoff
Those homes going under contract, the numbers I gave you at the beginning, were down 17%. Closed sales were also down: we had 828 sales compared to 916 last September. That’s almost 10% fewer closings.
Now, don’t hear what I’m not saying. One month does not make a trend, and I would much rather give you the truth than manufacture some dramatic headline. Year to date, Pima County sales are down less than 1%, and some slowdown during the fall is completely normal. But a 17% drop compared to the same month last year is still worth paying attention to. It tells us buyers became much more selective this fall.
So why didn’t prices fall? Because sellers pulled back too. New listings were down 5% from last year, from 1,484 homes to 1,410. When buyers take a step back and sellers take a step back at the same time, neither side has enough leverage to force a major price change. It’s a standoff. It’s not a crash. It’s not a boom. It’s a market in which both buyers and sellers are being cautious.
How Many Months of Supply Do We Have?
Right now, there are approximately 3,650 homes for sale across Pima County, giving us about 4.4 months of supply. Months of supply simply means that, if no other homes came onto the market, it would take about 4.4 months to sell everything currently available. Six months is generally considered a balanced market, so overall, we’re still leaning slightly toward sellers. But, and this is a big but, that countywide average hides some very different markets underneath it.
Where Buyers Actually Have Negotiating Power
Buyers don’t always have their power in the final sales price. The typical home that sold in September took 35 days to sell. Interestingly, that’s three days faster than last year. But let’s put that into perspective. In 2021, the median home sold in five days. Five. That market’s gone. We are operating in a completely different environment today, and sellers who are still pricing and making decisions as though it’s 2021 are learning that lesson the hard way.
On average, buyers closed at about 1.6% below the final asking price. But here’s the number sellers really need to hear: 48% of all homes currently for sale in Pima County have already had a price reduction. That’s 1,742 homes. The average reduction is approximately 6%, and the typical seller waits only 16 days before making that first price cut.
So, sellers, the market is sending you a very clear message: getting the price right from day one matters more than it has in years. Overpricing to leave yourself room to negotiate usually doesn’t give you an advantage. It can cost you the most valuable marketing time your home will ever have: the first few weeks on the market.
And buyers, this is where your opportunity is. Almost half of the listings on the market have already reduced their price. That tells you which sellers may be ready to have a real conversation, not just about price, but about closing costs, repairs, rate buydowns, and other concessions. There are deals to be made. You just need to know where to look and how to negotiate them.
There Is No Single Tucson Real Estate Market
Here’s something I say all the time: there is no single Tucson real estate market. Your market changes dramatically depending on your location and your price range.
Let’s start where most people are buying, between $300,000 and $400,000. That range represents approximately 35% of all sales in Pima County, and it currently has about four months of supply. It’s active but fairly balanced. The $400,000 to $500,000 range looks very similar.
Where is the market moving faster? Homes priced between $700,000 and $800,000 currently only have about 3.3 months of supply. That range is moving.
Now, let’s go to the other side of the spectrum. Between $800,000 and $1 million, we have almost nine months of supply. Between $1 million and $1.2 million, we’re at nine and a half months. And above $1.4 million, 17 months of supply. The typical home in that upper range has been sitting on the market for approximately 140 days. There were 191 homes available, and only 11 sold during the month.
Think about that: same county, same month, completely different markets. So when someone tells you the Tucson market is hot, or the Tucson market is slow, my first question is always, which part of the market? One headline number will never tell you the whole story.
The City of Tucson
The median sales price in September was $369,640. Last September, it was $370,000. You can’t get much flatter than that. Year to date, Tucson’s median is $372,500, basically where it has been since 2024.
But again, look underneath the price. Tucson had 546 sales in September, down 7.5% from last year. New pending sales dropped from 586 to 503, a decline of about 14%. It’s the same general pattern we’re seeing throughout the county: prices are holding, but buyer activity has slowed.
Tucson currently has around 2,236 homes for sale, which represents about 4.3 months of supply. The typical sold home took 34 days to sell, the same as last year. And once again, 48% of the active listings have already had a price reduction.
The price range story also repeats itself here. Below $700,000, the level of supply looks relatively normal. But between $800,000 and $1 million, supply climbs to more than nine months. Between $1 million and $1.2 million, it’s almost 12 months. And above $1.4 million, we’re looking at more than 17 months of inventory. So Tucson is holding steady on price, but buyers are moving more cautiously, especially as the price climbs.
Marana
Marana’s a little different. Homes typically take longer to sell there, and because it’s a smaller market, percentages can move around more dramatically from one month to the next. Keep that in mind when you hear these numbers.
Marana recorded 89 sales in September, down approximately 7%. The median sales price was $411,000, up less than 1% from last year. But when we zoom out, Marana’s year-to-date median is $447,900. That’s up 4.6% compared to this time last year. So despite a softer September, Marana has held its value better than many other parts of the county.
Here’s what buyers should pay attention to. New pending sales fell 25%, from 96 last September to 72 this year. New listings were also down 13%. So we had fewer buyers and fewer sellers, and approximately half of the homes currently for sale have already reduced their price.
The typical home that sold in Marana took 53 days. Compare that with 34 days in Tucson. If you’re selling in Marana, you need to go into the market with realistic expectations. It may take a little longer, and patience is part of the process. But patience does not mean sitting on the market indefinitely while hoping buyers will eventually pay your price. Believe me, I’ve seen that. It doesn’t work. Your pricing and presentation still need to be right.
If you’re buying in Marana, that longer market time can work in your favor. You may have more time to evaluate the home, do your homework, and negotiate favorable terms.
Oro Valley: The Market Going the Other Way
I promised you that one of these markets was doing the exact opposite of the others. Here it is: Oro Valley. And this honestly surprised me.
While Pima County, Tucson, and Marana all experienced fewer homes going under contract, Oro Valley went the other way. New pending sales increased 20%, from 34 last September to 41 this September. Closed sales were up 12%, and the median sales price reached $615,000, approximately 6% higher than last year.
Then there’s the speed. The typical Oro Valley home sold in 24 days. Last September, it took 55 days. That’s 31 days faster.
But does that mean buyers are fighting over every house and sellers can name any price they want? Absolutely not. Here’s the twist: Oro Valley homes sold for more than 3% below the asking price on average, the largest discount of any of the markets we’ve covered. So buyers are showing up, they’re making decisions more quickly, but they’re also negotiating hard. That’s what an informed market looks like. Buyers will move more when they see the right home, but they are not blindly overpaying for it.
Supply helps explain what’s happening. New listings in Oro Valley were down 15%, and in the $700,000 to $800,000 range, there is less than one month of supply. Less than one month. That is a very competitive slice of the market. But climb above $1.4 million, and you have approximately 11 months of supply. Again, your price range matters.
Now, I want to keep this all in perspective. Oro Valley is a smaller market, with only 46 sales during the month. When the sample size is that small, one especially strong month can move the percentages significantly. Year to date, Oro Valley’s median price is $550,000, which is actually about 3% lower than last year. So I’m not ready to declare this a brand new trend based on one month. What I can tell you is that September was a strong month for Oro Valley, and it proves an important point: even when the overall market feels quiet, there are still very active pockets of demand. You just have to know where they are.
What Does This Mean for You?
Here’s what I would tell my own clients.
If you’re buying, prices are not broadly dropping, but you do have more negotiating room than you did a year ago. Pay attention to homes that have already had a price reduction. Ask about seller concessions: closing costs, repairs, and rate buydowns. And know your specific price range. The leverage you have when buying a $1 million home is completely different from the leverage you may have on a $400,000 home.
If you’re selling, price it correctly from day one. Almost half of the active market has already reduced its price. The homes that sit are usually the ones buyers begin to question, and once that happens, the market often forces the seller to make a bigger adjustment than they would have needed at the beginning.
Your location matters, too. Oro Valley moved quickly in September. Marana required more patience. Tucson held steady, but saw fewer buyers committing to purchases. There is no one-size-fits-all strategy, not in this market. Your best strategy depends on your neighborhood, your price range, the condition of your home, your competition, and your personal timeline. That’s why the details matter, and why this is a conversation worth having before you make a move.
So that’s the Tucson real estate market for September. Prices didn’t move much, but buyers did. And the real story isn’t found in one headline. It’s found in your specific neighborhood and price range. I’ll be back next month with the October numbers.
Frequently Asked Questions
Did Tucson-area home prices drop in September 2026? No. Pima County’s median sales price was $385,000 in September, up 1.4% from $379,500 a year earlier. The city of Tucson’s median was $369,640, essentially flat against $370,000 last September.
How many months of housing supply does Pima County have? About 4.4 months, with roughly 3,650 homes for sale. Six months is generally considered balanced, so the county overall still leans slightly toward sellers, though supply varies sharply by price range.
How many Pima County listings have had a price reduction? 48% of active listings, or 1,742 homes, have already had a price cut. The average reduction is about 6%, and the typical seller makes the first cut after just 16 days.
How long does it take to sell a home in Tucson, Marana, and Oro Valley? In September, the typical Tucson home sold in 34 days, Marana in 53 days, and Oro Valley in 24 days. The countywide typical home took 35 days.
Which price ranges have the most competition? Homes between $700,000 and $800,000 had about 3.3 months of supply countywide and less than one month in Oro Valley. Above $1.4 million, Pima County had about 17 months of supply, with homes sitting around 140 days.
What negotiating room do buyers have right now? Buyers closed about 1.6% below the final asking price on average in Pima County, and Oro Valley buyers averaged more than 3% below asking. With nearly half of listings price-reduced, buyers can also ask about closing costs, repairs, and rate buydowns.
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About the Author
Michelle Ripley is the owner and lead advisor of Ripley’s Real Estate Group with Keller Williams Southern Arizona, ranked among the top 1% of agents nationally. She serves buyers and sellers throughout Tucson, Oro Valley, Marana, and Pima County — from first-time buyers to luxury clients — with an education-first approach backed by data-driven marketing and deep local expertise. A proud Oro Valley resident, Michelle is known for treating every client relationship with the same integrity and care that built her reputation as one of Southern Arizona’s most trusted agents.
